Feature selection in credit risk modeling: an international evidence

This paper aims to discover a suitable combination of contemporary feature selection techniques and robust prediction classifiers. As such, to examine the impact of the feature selection method on classifier performance, we use two Chinese and three other real-world credit scoring datasets. The utilized feature selection methods are the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). In contrast, the examined classifiers are the classification and regression trees (CART), logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machines (SVM). Empirical findings confirm that LASSO’s feature selection method, followed by robust classifier SVM, demonstrates remarkable improvement and outperforms other competitive classifiers. Moreover, ANN also offers improved accuracy with feature selection methods; LR only can improve classification efficiency through performing feature selection via LASSO. Nonetheless, CART does not provide any indication of improvement in any combination. The proposed credit scoring modeling strategy may use to develop policy, progressive ideas, operational guidelines for effective credit risk management of lending, and other financial institutions. The finding of this study has practical value, as to date, there is no consensus about the combination of feature selection method and prediction classifiers

Mitochondrial genetic characterization of Gujar population living in the Northwest areas of Pakistan

Background: Diversity of communities with specific cultural, ethnic, lingual and geographical backgrounds makes Pakistani society a suitable study subject to unravel the early human migrations, evolutionary history of population having about 18 ethnic groups. Gujars are mostly Indic-speaking nomadic herders with the claims of multiple origins in the sub-continent. Present study was aimed at the determination of maternal lineage of Gujars by mitochondrial DNA analysis.Methods: Total DNA from the human buccal cells was isolated using modified phenol chloroform method. Purified DNA was used for the PCR amplification of mitochondrial Hyper Variable Region 1 and 2 (HVR1 & 2). The nucleotide sequences of amplified PCR products were used to explore the maternal lineage of the Gujar population residing in Northern Pakistan.Results: Haplotypes, allele frequencies and population data of the mitochondrial control region was determined in 73 unrelated individuals belonging to Gujar ethnic group of Northwest areas of Pakistan. Total 46 diverse haplotypes were identified out of which 29 were found unique with (0.9223) genetic diversity and (0.9097) power of discrimination. Haplogroup R was the most frequent (48%) followed by haplogroup M (45%) and N (7%).Conclusion: We found that the Gujar population has multiple maternal gene pool comprising of South Asian, West Eurasian, East Eurasian, Southeast Asian and fractions of Eastern Asian, Eastern Europe and Northern Asian lineages. This study will contribute for the development of mitochondrial DNA database for Pakistani population

Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) - A Snapshot of Research

More than a billion people-one-sixth of the earth's population is infected with one or more neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in developing countries. Over the past decade, interests in NTDs have resurged as these are a barrier to achieving broader human development outcomes (e.g., improved newborn, child and maternal health, food, and nutritional safety). Several national and international organizations (such as the WHO, USAID, CDC, and others) concentrate on NTDs and fighting to control or prevent them. This review describes a brief introduction to NTDs, the global burden of the diseases in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and years of life lost (YLLs). This paper also reviews the negative impact of these diseases on global economies and discusses strategies for public health to prevent and eliminate these diseases, the achievements and challenges that can be achieved to address adversity there

Determinants of health care seeking behaviors in puerperal sepsis in rural Sindh, Pakistan: A qualitative study

Background: Puerperal sepsis (PS) is one of the major causes of maternal death, contributing to 26,000 deaths per year in developing countries. Early recognition and treatment are essential to managing PS, but numerous social, cultural and technical barriers prevent or delay access to care and necessary medical attention. Through this qualitative study, we identified barriers to care seeking for puerperal sepsis among recently delivered women in Matiari, Pakistan. Methods: We conducted 20 in-depth interviews among recently delivered women with and without sepsis and their family members in September 2012. Key informant interviews were conducted with 14 healthcare providers and traditional birth attendants. The themes used for content analysis were knowledge of danger signs, factors affecting care seeking and local treatment practices for postpartum sepsis. Results: A total of 34 interviews were conducted. Recently delivered women, their family members and traditional birth attendants were unaware of the word PS or the local translated term for PS. However, they were familiar with most of the individual symptoms associated with PS. Healthcare providers were aware of the condition and the associated symptoms. The healthcare providers’ understanding of the seriousness of PS was directly proportional their age and clinical experience. The most common barriers to care seeking was the division of labor within the household, obtaining permission from the primary decision maker, access to transportation, lack of financial resources and support from family members.Conclusion: To improve maternal care seeking behaviors for PS, interventions focusing on increasing knowledge of PS, addressing gender inequality, implementing an affordable community transport service and enhancing TBA’s knowledge and skills to manage PS need to be implemented

Bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of profitability : a revisit of Pakistani banking sector under dynamic panel data approach

This study aims to examine the effect of the bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of profitability for the banking sector of Pakistan. To incorporate the issues of endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and profit persistence, we apply a generalised method of moments (GMM) technique under the Arellano–Bond framework to a panel of Pakistani banks that covers the period 2003–2017. The results of a dynamic panel data approach reveal that capital adequacy accelerates the profitability of the banking sector in Pakistan. Capital adequacy helps the financial system to absorb any negative shock by reducing the number of bank failures and losses. Conversely, our empirical investigation reveals that the liquidity ratio, business mix indicators, interest rates, and industrial production deteriorates the bank profitability. Liquidity risks enhance the probability of default risks and transmit into the unpaid loans and hence the lower return. Our empirical evidence further reveals that Pakistani banks are not getting any benefit of the economies of scale in terms of financial performance

Simulated patient’s feedback regarding final year end of term examination in medicine at Aga Khan University

Introduction: Assessment is an integral part of any medical university. Traditionally, real patients were considered indispensable in medical training. Recent advances in health education coupled with overburdened health care systems have steered to the introduction of the relatively newer concept of “simulated or standardized patients” (SP). Simulated patients (SPs) are used worldwide and here at Aga Khan University as well. They are specifically trained according to examination need and used as simulators during end of term examinations here at Department of Medicine, AKU. It is imperative to understand the perspective of all stakeholders (360 evaluations). Purpose: The purpose of our study was to understand the perspective of the SPs regarding the process of end of term examination (EOT) of final year students rotating in medicine here at Aga Khan University (AKU). Method: A cross sectional survey was conducted amongst SPs participating in the final year EOT examination of the department of medicine at AKU from November 2012 to February 2013. Results: The information was analyzed using SPSS. Descriptive statistics were inferred. n= 26 Majority of SPs were recruited by the Dept. for Educational Development (68.8%), work as SPs 1-3 times a month (65.2%), with an average session being 5-8hrs (56.3%). Most SPs (53.1%) were satisfied with the training provided to them. Conclusion: Simulation has been proven to be a tremendous tool for healthcare educators, in that it allows students to achieve these goals without our patients being put at risk. The use of simulated patients for undergraduate assessment has become well established. The SPs were able to provide feedback to the organizers from a patient’s perspective immediately after a simulated clinical encounter. Limitation: The original instrument was translated into another language. It is reported that translating an instrument always involves the risk that the original idea expressed in an item may not be conveyed fully and accuratel

Exploring knowledge and perceptions of polio disease and its immunization in polio high-risk areas of Pakistan

Pakistan is one of the few countries where poliovirus transmission still persists, despite intensive efforts to eradicate the disease. Adequate vaccination coverage is essential to achieve polio eradication, but misconceptions about polio vaccines have hindered vaccination efforts. To address this issue, we conducted a mixed-methods study to explore knowledge and perceptions regarding polio disease and immunization in high-risk areas of Pakistan. We collected quantitative data from 3780, 1258, and 2100 households in Karachi, Bajaur, and Pishin, respectively, and supplemented this with qualitative data from focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Our findings reveal a high level of awareness about polio and its immunization; however, misperceptions about the polio vaccine persist, leading to refusal for both polio vaccines and routine immunizations. Our study provides up-to-date data on knowledge and perceptions of polio and its immunization and identifies critical gaps. These findings can inform the development of future strategies and innovative approaches to improve the success of the polio program in Pakistan

Knowledge and perceptions of polio and polio immunization in polio high-risk areas of Pakistan

Pakistan and Afghanistan remain the only countries where polio is endemic, and Pakistan reports the most cases in the world. Although the rate is lower than in previous years, the situation remains alarming. We conducted a mixed methods study in high-risk areas of Pakistan to identify knowledge, attitudes, and practices of target populations about polio vaccine and its eradication, and to estimate coverage of routine immunization and oral polio vaccine. We surveyed 10,685 households in Karachi, 2522 in Pishin, and 2005 in Bajaur. Some knowledge of polio is universal, but important misconceptions persist. The findings of this study carry strategic importance for program direction and implementation

The last mile-community engagement and conditional incentives to accelerate polio eradication in Pakistan: Study protocol for a quasi-experimental trial

Poliomyelitis is a condition of great concern and is endemic in only two countries of the world: Pakistan and Afghanistan. Community mobilization plays a vital role in raising awareness and can help reduce polio vaccine refusals. The objective of this study will be to decrease polio vaccine refusals and zero-dose vaccines by motivating behavior change through the provision of conditional-collective-community-based incentives (C3Is) based on a reduction in polio vaccine refusals. The project will adopt a pretest/post-test quasi-experimental design with two intervention high-risk union councils (HRUCs) and two control union councils (UCs) of peri-urban (Karachi) and rural (Bannu) settings in Pakistan. A participatory community engagement and demand creation strategy with trust-building community mobilization with C3Is, to reduce vaccine refusals and improve polio immunization coverage in two HRUCs, will be used. These UCs will be divided into clusters based on the polio program framework and community groups will be formed in each cluster. These community groups will carry out awareness activities and will be given serial targets to reduce vaccine refusals and those who qualify will be provided C3Is. The project intends to create a replicable model that the government can integrate within health systems for long-term sustainability until the goal of eradication of poliovirus is achieved. The evaluation will be carried out by an independent data collection and analysis team at baseline and endline (after 12 months of intervention). The trial is registered with linicalTrials.gov with number NCT0572127

Factors associated with vaccine refusal (polio and Routine immunization) in high-risk areas of Pakistan: A matched case-control study

Background: Pakistan has subpar childhood immunization rates and immunization activities have faced several challenges over the past years. We evaluated the social-behavioral and cultural barriers and risk factors for refusal of polio, Routine Immunization (RI), or both in high-risk areas of poliovirus circulation. Methods: A matched case-control study was conducted from April to July 2017 in eight super high-risk Union Councils of five towns in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 3 groups, each with 250 cases, including refusals for the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) in campaigns (national immunization days and supplementary immunization activities), RI, and both, were matched with 500 controls and identified using surveillance records. Sociodemographic characteristics, household information, and immunization history were assessed. Study outcomes included social-behavioral and cultural barriers and reasons for vaccine refusal. Data were analyzed in STATA using conditional logistic regression. Results: RI refusal was associated with illiteracy and fear of the vaccine\u27s adverse effects, while OPV refusals were linked to the mother\u27s decision authority and the assumption that the OPV caused infertility. Conversely, higher socioeconomic status (SES) and knowledge of and willingness to vaccinate with Inactivated Polio Vaccine (IPV) were inversely associated with RI; and lower SES, walking to the vaccination point, knowledge of IPV, and an understanding of contracting polio were inversely associated with OPV refusals, with the latter two also inversely associated with complete vaccine refusal. Conclusion: Education, knowledge and understanding of vaccines, and socioeconomic determinants influenced OPV and RI refusals among children. Effective interventions are needed to address knowledge gaps and misconceptions among parent